Discussion:
Bullshit modelling taken as truth
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George Black
2021-09-24 01:10:22 UTC
Permalink
Government shroud-waving puppet Hendy comes up with a model suggesting 7000 fatalities at 80% vaccination rate.
Hendy's numbers clearly and obviously do not stack up.
Data from the UK: 1.2% of COVID fatalities were fully vaccinated.
Data from NZ has our CFR at about 0.7%
So based on these numbers, Hendy's 7000 fatalities would be 6860 unvaccinated and 140 vaccinated, To make the 140 you would very likely have such co-morbidities that other illnesses such as the flu or common cold could be fatal.
Back to the 6860: At 0.7% CFR that is about a million unvaccinated cases. However at 80% vaccination rate there's only about 1 million unvaccinated people - and that's including 0-12 yo who are very unlikely to become seriously ill with COVID. So there you have it. Hendy's model relies on every single unvaccinated person catching COVID within 12 months. Which has happened in a total of zero countries, ever. Over the life of COVID, the highest cases/population country is tiny, crowded Seychelles at around 20%. Most countries similar size/density to NZ are at around 5-15% regardless of lockdowns and masks.
So Hendy's model is most likely overstating deaths by around 800-1000%
This is borne out in such places as Sweden, Denmark, UK, Singapore death rates which are no where near the rates Hendy models.
Hendy's model is a joke, made to order number, designed to scare people into compliance. It has not been peer reviewed, and we are not able to see how his model works. As far as we know, he pulled the numbers out of his arse, or more likely was quietly suggested a number.
All treated as truth by the government and breathlessly reported by MSM as they prepare to keep us caged by dangling a 90% figure that is unattainable.
Any-one ask Hendy the current death rates of NZers and where they fit in
his BS claim ????
JohnO
2021-09-24 02:11:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by George Black
Government shroud-waving puppet Hendy comes up with a model suggesting 7000 fatalities at 80% vaccination rate.
Hendy's numbers clearly and obviously do not stack up.
Data from the UK: 1.2% of COVID fatalities were fully vaccinated.
Data from NZ has our CFR at about 0.7%
So based on these numbers, Hendy's 7000 fatalities would be 6860 unvaccinated and 140 vaccinated, To make the 140 you would very likely have such co-morbidities that other illnesses such as the flu or common cold could be fatal.
Back to the 6860: At 0.7% CFR that is about a million unvaccinated cases. However at 80% vaccination rate there's only about 1 million unvaccinated people - and that's including 0-12 yo who are very unlikely to become seriously ill with COVID. So there you have it. Hendy's model relies on every single unvaccinated person catching COVID within 12 months. Which has happened in a total of zero countries, ever. Over the life of COVID, the highest cases/population country is tiny, crowded Seychelles at around 20%. Most countries similar size/density to NZ are at around 5-15% regardless of lockdowns and masks.
So Hendy's model is most likely overstating deaths by around 800-1000%
This is borne out in such places as Sweden, Denmark, UK, Singapore death rates which are no where near the rates Hendy models.
Hendy's model is a joke, made to order number, designed to scare people into compliance. It has not been peer reviewed, and we are not able to see how his model works. As far as we know, he pulled the numbers out of his arse, or more likely was quietly suggested a number.
All treated as truth by the government and breathlessly reported by MSM as they prepare to keep us caged by dangling a 90% figure that is unattainable.
Any-one ask Hendy the current death rates of NZers and where they fit in
his BS claim ????
Remember he's the guy who came up with the "80,000 NZ Deaths" model at the start of this fiasco. That would be a 1.6% CFR even "if" every single New Zealander caught it. And they pay this guy for this drivel? Of course they do, he gives them exactly what they are asking for; a license to restrict our personal freedom.
Gordon
2021-09-24 04:46:09 UTC
Permalink
Government shroud-waving puppet Hendy comes up with a model suggesting 7000 fatalities at 80% vaccination rate.
Hendy's numbers clearly and obviously do not stack up.
Data from the UK: 1.2% of COVID fatalities were fully vaccinated.
Data from NZ has our CFR at about 0.7%
So based on these numbers, Hendy's 7000 fatalities would be 6860 unvaccinated and 140 vaccinated, To make the 140 you would very likely have such co-morbidities that other illnesses such as the flu or common cold could be fatal.
Back to the 6860: At 0.7% CFR that is about a million unvaccinated cases. However at 80% vaccination rate there's only about 1 million unvaccinated people - and that's including 0-12 yo who are very unlikely to become seriously ill with COVID. So there you have it. Hendy's model relies on every single unvaccinated person catching COVID within 12 months. Which has happened in a total of zero countries, ever. Over the life of COVID, the highest cases/population country is tiny, crowded Seychelles at around 20%. Most countries similar size/density to NZ are at around 5-15% regardless of lockdowns and masks.
So Hendy's model is most likely overstating deaths by around 800-1000%
This is borne out in such places as Sweden, Denmark, UK, Singapore death rates which are no where near the rates Hendy models.
Hendy's model is a joke, made to order number, designed to scare people into compliance. It has not been peer reviewed, and we are not able to see how his model works. As far as we know, he pulled the numbers out of his arse, or more likely was quietly suggested a number.
All treated as truth by the government and breathlessly reported by MSM as they prepare to keep us caged by dangling a 90% figure that is unattainable.
The thing which amazes me most about this is that the sanity check was not
applied. 7000/yr is 140 perday, that can not be right, should have crossed
someones mind before being released.

As you have pointed out similar sized countries have a far lower rate.
Although the experiement is on-going.

The UK are averaging about 140 deaths per day at present and this probably
will go up in winter. UK population is 13 times that of NZ. So on a per
capita basis 140/13.2=1.5 is expected rate for NZ. Make it and average of
2.5 over the year to allow for winter and we get 912 deaths. Plus or minus
as the 2.5 is a it of stab in the dark.

The point is that this is close to the 7000/8 figure suggested above.

The PM said that the 7000 figure was not released to scare people but the
encourage people to get vaccinated. Okay so while in a state of shock over
this, people probably are distracted from getting vaccinated.

My take from all of this is that at best Hendy's figures are very, very
conservative and secondly the message from the Government was poor. Another
fail.
Willy Nilly
2021-09-24 04:56:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Gordon
The thing which amazes me most about this is that the sanity check was not
applied. 7000/yr is 140 perday, that can not be right, should have crossed
someones mind before being released.
Much as I laud your sentiment, 7000/365 = about 19 per day.

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