Discussion:
Labour, Covid19 and the way forward
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Crash
2020-05-16 08:37:17 UTC
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Permalink
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.

So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
taken on some (particularly Angela :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.

So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.

What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.

The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.

Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.


--
Crash McBash
James Christophers
2020-05-17 01:06:39 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.

So I'd like to touch on just one factor whose fortunes and behaviour can either make or break the New Zealand economy. Tourism:

Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)

Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".

As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below). Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.

So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?

Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.

If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?

After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
Crash
2020-05-17 01:54:38 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Sat, 16 May 2020 18:06:39 -0700 (PDT), James Christophers
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
That will only become evident if National has the political
wherewithal expose both the issue and their alternative solution. I
am not holding my breath for this.
Post by James Christophers
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below). Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
The Government needs to give certainty to Tourism-based businesses -
that current support mechanisms are only to enable them to survive
long enough to pivot into something else. Snap used to be a rental
car business and I recall seeing some weeks ago that it is now a food
delivery business (presumably competing with Uber eats). If your
business is viable only because of foreign tourists that business
should already be heading in another direction (assuming liquidation
is no more viable than continuing unchanged).
Post by James Christophers
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
No it is not. If any company is able to convince customers to part
with their money then either they provide valued services and/or goods
or they have found the fools (as in "a fool and his money are soon
parted". No government involvement required (unless crime is
involved).
Post by James Christophers
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
The lock-down took away many avenues for me to spend money. While it
did result in reduced spending, I resented every such constraint and I
am enjoying being largely free of those constraints now. I would
expect many others are in a similar disposition.


--
Crash McBash
James Christophers
2020-05-17 04:35:03 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Crash
On Sat, 16 May 2020 18:06:39 -0700 (PDT), James Christophers
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
That will only become evident if National has the political
wherewithal expose both the issue and their alternative solution. I
am not holding my breath for this.
For National make any impression, there needs to be watertight fault-and-blame exposure on the one hand and rational, demonstrably workable alternatives and initiatives on the other. September is not far distant and I for one haven't so far heard much in the way of vibrancy or inspiration coming from the Opposition's corner.
Post by Crash
Post by James Christophers
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below). Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
The Government needs to give certainty to Tourism-based businesses -
that current support mechanisms are only to enable them to survive
long enough to pivot into something else.
I suggest that in the current situation and for some considerable time to come, there can never be certainty. The best anyone can hope for is reassurance, and even then it cannot be unconditional in terms of a carved-in-stone commitment. There are simply too many variably and unstable external factors influencing government decisions and policies, let alone internal ones.
Post by Crash
Snap used to be a rental
car business and I recall seeing some weeks ago that it is now a food
delivery business (presumably competing with Uber eats).
Something like that. But this sounds very much like pivoting into "something is better than nothing" survival mode, not that any such switch isn't intrinsically in itself worthy. But it's still an economically barren, zero-sum way of going about things.
Post by Crash
If your
business is viable only because of foreign tourists that business
should already be heading in another direction (assuming liquidation
is no more viable than continuing unchanged).
It's a question of which actual direction is itself viable when the core economy underpinning that notional direction is nothing like as viable as it was, and only then at the level it is because the government's credit is (for now) good.

Even then, there are financial pit props courtesy of the taxpayer and foreign creditors everywhere you look.

As to "viability", when an employer cannot even pay its employee(s) sufficient for their necessaries of life including the rent for a roof over their heads but needs propping up with WFF subsidies et al to do so, is it even viable? I think not.

So, in all honesty, what kind of an economy are we actually looking at if not a mirage?
Post by Crash
Post by James Christophers
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
No it is not. If any company is able to convince customers to part
with their money then either they provide valued services and/or goods
or they have found the fools (as in "a fool and his money are soon
parted". No government involvement required (unless crime is
involved).
Nothing wrong with that as it stands (in isolation). But freedom of choice in a free economy or no, if anyone really believes that zero-sum money-churning is the way to grow and develop a stronger and more viable economy, then I invite them to show exactly how.
Post by Crash
Post by James Christophers
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
The lock-down took away many avenues for me to spend money. While it
did result in reduced spending, I resented every such constraint and I
am enjoying being largely free of those constraints now. I would
expect many others are in a similar disposition.
The problem can - at least in greater part - be sheeted home to the banks and the credit houses whose quasi-free lending has led to personal expectations vastly exceeding individuals' **earned** wealth - (and I cannot emphasise **earned** strongly enough). This country already does not earn its keep. Period. As the coronavirus aftermath unfolds, this nation's willingness and ability to do so will be on trial.

More than one economic commentator has said Kiwis are financially illiterate, not that this is in any way unique or exclusive to this nation. However, when people come to believe that debt and wealth are one and the same - and they do, and in spades - then for any political system and its economy that so casually gives free rein to such a self-destructive mindset, the jig is well and truly up.

Hence New Zealand's history of pernicious economic stagnation partnered by burgeoning household debt and now, loony-priced housing. This applies even to houses of the most humble and prosaic which few locals can now afford to buy because supremely wealthy foreigners have been given open slather to set and manipulate the level of the top rung of the pricing ladder. It is from this top rung that the "trickle-down" principle acts with its remorseless tooth-and-claw vengeance as it hollows out and undermines the entire economy.

So, irrespective of which party ends up burdened with the poisoned chalice from September onward, no-one should be the least bit surprised to find that a long day's journey into economic night is what now confronts us all...
Rich80105
2020-05-17 01:58:19 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Sat, 16 May 2020 18:06:39 -0700 (PDT), James Christophers
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below). Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
The first tranche of business support was esentially to ensure that
most companies would be able to continue to stay in existence - it was
a fairly crude measure, but a team of investigators will have been
ensuring that where government money was paid it did in fact reach
employees - even if that was all the money they received. Tourism in
one area where you rightly point out that it will be some time before
many of those ventures will be able to continue. Most tourism ventures
were low margin companies, with low skill and low waged employees (and
many of those immigrants), although some owners of course did very
well. For those companies, the support for employees may be their
termination pay; but at least those out of work are now able to start
looking for jobs in other industries.

The government is looking at projects that may use some of the
employees now out of work - a "wilding pine" project may be useful for
forestry workers, although I gather logs have started to move to China
again (and I still believe we should be trying to add value to more
logs . . .). The reality is however that may tourism jobs will be
permanently lost.

Transport costs have been a major difference in spending - and have I
suspect contributed to cleaner air and water, despite farming
continuing throughout. Rail will not solve all transport problems, but
we do have the balance wrong at present - I do not believe the large
diesel pay their fair share of emmission or road repair costs, and
public transport is also below optimal levels. Some workplaces
areencouraging working from home, and I suspectt hat may become more
common.

The changes are extensive, and appear to have been well thought
through in government actions so far.
JohnO
2020-05-19 04:49:42 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below).
This is spot on. Unfortunately the Prime Minister feels this non-earning, zero production money-go-round has wheels and will go somewhere. To make it worse, otherwise productive businesses will be forced to pour their money into it!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332949

Such is the financial illiteracy of our government that it thinks the economy can lift itself up by pulling up on its boot laces. It really beggars belief.
Post by James Christophers
Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
John Bowes
2020-05-19 12:07:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JohnO
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below).
This is spot on. Unfortunately the Prime Minister feels this non-earning, zero production money-go-round has wheels and will go somewhere. To make it worse, otherwise productive businesses will be forced to pour their money into it!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332949
Such is the financial illiteracy of our government that it thinks the economy can lift itself up by pulling up on its boot laces. It really beggars belief.
Post by James Christophers
Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
Typical Marxist/Socialist thinking JohnO. with luck the wheels will fall off Labours bus before the election and they'll be exposed as the useless buggers they are in realty...
James Christophers
2020-05-20 02:34:40 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JohnO
Post by James Christophers
Post by Crash
Well here we are in the first weekend where we can eat out and get a
haircut!! Pubs (that are not also restaurants) open their doors next
week. This is a time to review developments to date.
So there are some who believe the episode we have of Levels and
lock-downs is driven by politics first and all else of secondary
importance. The reaction to level 4 restrictions says a lot about
widespread support for the measures taken despite the terrible toll
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330375)
and all the others caught up in the level 4 funeral ban. Let us never
forget that while most of us accepted the restrictions dished out,
some were devastated by events that unfolded. There will be other
Angelas with similar devastation to report.
So our PM took us down a path that has so far yielded success in
preventing widespread infection from the virus. She has demonstrated
leadership qualities that I wondered if she had. Whether what she did
was right or wrong, she took decisive action that she should now be
held to account for by a competent opposition. Winston and Shane were
no-where to be seen for a while - a magnificent achievement but no
doubt rewarded by additional funding beyond that for Horse racing that
has been announced.
What our PM has done so far though is the easy bit. Now we get to
find out whether she and Labour have what it takes to move forward and
convert this to electoral success in the upcoming election. The
budget has seen a huge response in Government spending that renders
the spend-up by National governments following the GFC and
Christchurch Earthquakes a mere footnote in history.
The legality of the actions taken, potentially decisions made by the
Government despite advice from Crown Law suspected to advise legal
restrictions on Policing, is up for scrutiny. Clearly National are
hamstrung by the fact that their leader cannot generate a level of
'Simonmania' that can counter the PM's 'Jacindamania' so they have to
work a little harder to expose any weaknesses in Government actions
that erode the widespread public support Labour have enjoyed.
Opposition assertions that 'the Government have got it all wrong' are
simply so inadequate that they rebound against National.
Do National have the capability to tread the fine line between being
dismissed as an impotent force (as Bill Rowling was against Muldoon)
and producing the wherewithal to cause the electorate to turn against
a Government currently so popular? In my humble opinion this will
decide the upcoming election.
Ardern's grip on the Treasury benches can be good only for as long as the electorate sees sufficient rationale and justification for the hard yards it is being put through at this time. I suggest this tolerance will wear thin when both the current and the longer-term impact of her (necessary) policies and actions becomes evident.
Overnight we have lost the large majority of our hitherto 4 million international tourists, and with them a super-critical component of our export earnings. (OK, the Aussies make up a fair proportion of the numbers and in their case relaxed border controls are being considered. But they're no different from us in that they too have their Covid-19 economic ramifications to deal with.)
Our crucial tourism ledger is well into the red and will remain there for the foreseeable future. A gaping black hole in the very epicentre of New Zealand's earning potential. Unsurprisingly tourism industry leaders are beseeching government for support, but this support comes at the expense of the entire nation in the form of hugely increased international indebtedness courtesy of our lender-financiers. Simply, it's "Business becomes Beneficiary".
As for promoting local tourism, this can only be a band-aid to promote further zero-productivity, zero-sum money-churning (see more on this below).
This is spot on. Unfortunately the Prime Minister feels this non-earning, zero production money-go-round has wheels and will go somewhere.
It's playing for time during a period of imponderable uncertainty with a dose of "community spirit" thrown in.

For too long this has been and still is a make-do-and-mend mirage economy that has laboured under a mindset that has made it 100% beholden to international finance; a country that finds itself now on its knees to its biggest export earner and slave owner as lowly price taker, never price setter. So what price independent economic sovereignty now?

But it's not down to this government only, but to any New Zealand government you can name over the past 50-plus years.
Post by JohnO
To make it worse, otherwise productive businesses will be forced to pour their money into it!
Likewise, their taxpaying employees, of course - that's provided their "otherwise productive" employers are paying them sufficient that they need no government - i.e. taxpayer - handouts like WFF, of course.
Post by JohnO
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332949
(Page "no longer exists")
Post by JohnO
Such is the financial illiteracy of our government that it thinks the economy can lift itself up by pulling up on its boot laces. It really beggars belief.
A global malaise now built and maintained almost entirely on debt of one kind or another, a creditor being simply a rentier who operates in money rather than in property.

There's plenty of financial literacy in our governments if not in their fellow-travelling party memberships. Unfortunately governments tends to yield to pragmatism brought on by the approach of the next general election.

So it's more a question of economic literacy compromised by pragmatism.
Post by JohnO
Post by James Christophers
Futile in terms of real-value economic recovery, while reinforcing a perniciously self-indulgent bad habit that, economically, gets us not one inch further forward.
So I'd have thought when it comes to tourism as a whole, it is reasonable to ask, is the government not only giving the kiss of life to an incurable patient in terminal condition, but also to be expected to do deliver into this economic black hole ad infinitum? Rhetorical, I know, but that's how it looks to me when such claims on the taxpayer and his overseas creditors are presumed - it seems - to have no caps or time constraints placed on them? OK, they may well have been conditional in such a way, but you can bet your bottom dollar that if they have, then as night follows day, these handouts will be extended when the cut-off comes due. But ad infinitum?
Another point for your consideration: isn't about time for the government - any government - to start investigating just how many New Zealand "businesses" are nothing but zero-productivity, zero-sum, money-churning between locals? I'd have thought that the more thoughtful among us would by now have realised what a positive difference it has made to our personal P/L ledgers when such an excess of mindless frippery and inessential discretionary spending has been "denied" us over the past couple of months.
If such a timely realisation doesn't give the nation pause, then what will?
After all, it's not as if such a reality check were not way, way overdue, is it?
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