2020-05-01 01:32:38 UTC
An excellent graph on the Daily Mail, see the graph titled
"Coronavirus Daily Deaths per Million -- rolling seven day average" on
It compares the Swedish 7-day-average (which screens out weekday
reporting artefacts) with the UK and USA. The Swedish curve clearly
shows the first wave peak on 11 April and the second wave peak on 26
April. No other country has reached their 2nd wave peak.
Sweden will reach herd immunity levels in May. As they are a
naturally standoffish people, they won't have personal distancing
issues and so there will be no 3rd peak for them, their 3rd peak will
instead consist of a residual tail of cases which will persist in
small numbers, tailing off over time.
After that, cigars all around as the Swedes can put up their feet and
watch the rest of the world writhe their way through the inevitable
2nd wave of cases which will happen as social distancing ends.
As for New Zealand, we will be the world's new "Hermit Kingdom", with
all gates shut, carpets rolled up, etc -- out, out, damned world, send
vaccines -- but the vaccines never come. The Muldoon era will seem
positively internationalist by comparison.