Discussion:
Ah ... this is rather good
(too old to reply)
Gordon
2021-09-23 07:46:14 UTC
Permalink
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test

On one level it is good that Rodney Jones has come forth to challange
Hendy's modelling.

On another it would be good if these two, and any other modellers could find
some common ground and release this. At present we have two views which risk
confusing the public and/or turning into a spat, will will distract from the
main point.

A question arises out of this, why does the Government not take all
modellers input when it comes to covid deaths (estimated).

During the Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010-11 there was just one message from
the earthquake scientists. It had maybes and possibilies in it and also
modelling. What we ended up with was the probablity of a certain magnitude
quake in the a time period starting from now.

The result was a table, which was subject to revision.

Some thing similar might be helpful in the possible covid death numbers.
Rich80105
2021-09-23 11:15:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Gordon
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
On one level it is good that Rodney Jones has come forth to challange
Hendy's modelling.
On another it would be good if these two, and any other modellers could find
some common ground and release this. At present we have two views which risk
confusing the public and/or turning into a spat, will will distract from the
main point.
A question arises out of this, why does the Government not take all
modellers input when it comes to covid deaths (estimated).
During the Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010-11 there was just one message from
the earthquake scientists. It had maybes and possibilies in it and also
modelling. What we ended up with was the probablity of a certain magnitude
quake in the a time period starting from now.
The result was a table, which was subject to revision.
Some thing similar might be helpful in the possible covid death numbers.
Modellers in the UK or Australia will start with different data, a
different past experience and so will produce different results . . .
Tony
2021-09-23 20:38:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rich80105
Post by Gordon
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
On one level it is good that Rodney Jones has come forth to challange
Hendy's modelling.
On another it would be good if these two, and any other modellers could find
some common ground and release this. At present we have two views which risk
confusing the public and/or turning into a spat, will will distract from the
main point.
A question arises out of this, why does the Government not take all
modellers input when it comes to covid deaths (estimated).
During the Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010-11 there was just one message from
the earthquake scientists. It had maybes and possibilies in it and also
modelling. What we ended up with was the probablity of a certain magnitude
quake in the a time period starting from now.
The result was a table, which was subject to revision.
Some thing similar might be helpful in the possible covid death numbers.
Modellers in the UK or Australia will start with different data, a
different past experience and so will produce different results . . .
However they could peer review it using NZ data. I believe that only the base
model was peer reviewed not this specific model. That is unusual scientific
practice and raises questions about how accurate the model is.

George Black
2021-09-23 20:01:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Gordon
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
On one level it is good that Rodney Jones has come forth to challange
Hendy's modelling.
On another it would be good if these two, and any other modellers could find
some common ground and release this. At present we have two views which risk
confusing the public and/or turning into a spat, will will distract from the
main point.
A question arises out of this, why does the Government not take all
modellers input when it comes to covid deaths (estimated).
During the Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010-11 there was just one message from
the earthquake scientists. It had maybes and possibilies in it and also
modelling. What we ended up with was the probablity of a certain magnitude
quake in the a time period starting from now.
The result was a table, which was subject to revision.
Some thing similar might be helpful in the possible covid death numbers.
The modellers should go back to plastic aeroplanes and clockwork railway
engines
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