Post by Crash Post by Rich80105 Post by BR Post by Rich80105
That title sounds like an Ardern and Biden double act.
Until you read it, but I agree, not many will have heard the last word
before. I was intrigued at the further evidence that econimics is a
mix of science and art - in other words, it is subject to fashion and
opinion; and some of the expectations of economists have been proved
wrong by the worldwide Covid experience - putting lives before profits
has worked better than expected in getting us through covid, with less
of an economic effect than many economists would have predicted; and
many may not have been aware of the economic losses through the
Roger-nomics /Ruth-anomics era.
What this boiled down to is that the principle of sacrificing the
economy to mitigate loss of life (the lock down approach) is currently
proving more effective that the sacrificing of lives to mitigate
economic losses (the Swedish approach). PM Ardern chose the lock down
approach, Sweden in particular chose the other approach, which
sacrifices lives to achieve herd-immunity (in the belief that
widespread infections produce natural immunity in many more people
than those that die).
While it looks like the lock down approach is producing vastly lower
death-rates at a lower economic cost that feared, we are still in the
early stages of the pandemic so it is too early to tell. As time goes
on, the effectiveness of the lock down approach is dependent on
induced immunity ( aka immunisation) against COVID19 to allow trade
barriers to be reduced. It also looks like the Swedish approach is
not producing the level of natural immunity that was hoped for, but
this may change over time.
It is still too soon to know which was most effective.
I haven't seen statistics on immunity, whether natural or otherwise,
but I believe Sweden has admitted they did not adopt the best
approach. So far, it is fair to say that the lock down approach,
accompanied by good border protecton (difficult for any country but
less difficult for island nations like New Zealand) is by far the best
approach so far. The best hope for the future is an effective vaccine
or vaccines; it appears there is still some time before that happens.
Unfortunately we have a number of countries with political parties
that have encouraged distrust of government for political ends - the
lockdown approach requires a fair amount of trust in government, and a
willingness to act in the interests of the common good. New Zealand is
lucky that such attitudes are more muted than in say the UK and USA;
but the impression that National would have moved even slightly
towards the Swedish approach may have done as much to affect the
election result as satisfaction with the decisions that the Labour-led
government had made; explaining to some extent the shift of some
National supporters to the ACT party.