Post by Rich80105 Post by Rich80105 Post by JohnO Post by Gordon
Anyone getting confused by term % of country vaccinated?
We vaccinate people, not countries.
Hendy in his modelling has assumed the possible folks who can receive a
vacination is 5 years old to death. Where the heck did this 5+ come from?
The 90% vaccinate rate is 90% of what?
A) All the people in this country approx 5 million,
B) Everyone 12 years old or older
C) Everyone 5 years or older
"Covid-19 NZ: Modelling suggests 7000 deaths in a year even with 75 per
cent of country jabbed" A headline from Stuff.
People are going to say that target is 90% vaccination, which is well and
good as long as we all understand what it means. This means being clear
until the level of understanding is reached.
Why are we giving so much credence to the likes of Hendy and that idiot Fergusson in the UK? They are repeatedly, massively wrong, and use extreme assumptions to model extreme results. These get lapped up by control freak politicians to justify suffocating restrictions to people's freedoms.
Modelers are way down the evolutionary order from those other fakers, economists.
They have modelled what would happen if we did nothing. We took heed
and did something. Actual results were better than the modelling
because we did sometning. If we stop what we are doing our resuts are
likely to be a lot worse.
Maybe look at the Swedish model. It seems to have worked compared to
the other countries surronding it.
Cases is per 1m pop; Deaths per 1m pop as shown today from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (NZ from NZ source)
Vax is doses per 100 population as at 19 Sept 2021 from
Sweden Cases 112,945 Deaths 1,452 Vax 132
Denmark Cases 61,253 Deaths 454 Vax 150
Norway Cases 33,989 Deaths 155 Vax 139
Iceland Cases 33,817 Deaths 96 Vax 160
Finland Cases 24,963 Deaths 191 Vax 133
Germany Cases 49,868 Deaths 1,117 Vax 126
New Zealand Cases 832 Deaths 5 Vax 100
I suspect our current rate of vaccination will close the gap with
those countries fairly quickly.
The other statistic that would be interesting would be number of days
of "Lockdown" with some estimate of level of restriction for each
Certanly Sweden was the inspiration behind the "Plan B" proposers here
in New Zealand some time ago - from memory the epidemiologists from
BusinessNZ or the NZ Initiative; but it may have just been from
Business Leaders . . .
If you didn't have the country names, which set of statistics above
would you prefer to live in?
Here are the graphs for Sweden since day 1. You will see that they